Math 1030 Quantitative Reasoning

Part I

The Iowa caucuses are perhaps the most important yet mysterious contest in American politics. It all began after the 1968 Democratic National Convention protest, the party decided that changes needed to be made when electing their Presidential nominee. Iowa, at the time had a very complex process of precinct, county, district, and state conventions, so they decided to gather together to hold one big caucus. Rather than going to polls and casting ballots, Iowans would go to a set location in each of the precincts to make their choice.

Now each precinct divides its delegate seats among the candidates in the caucus votes. Voters indicate their support for a candidate by standing in a designated area of the caucus site forming a preference group. The thing is, they even have a space for undecided voters. For about thirty minutes, the voters try to convince their fellow voters to support who they are voting for. Undecided voters are able to “visit” each preference group to get more information on their candidate.

After thirty minutes, the process is stopped, and the participants in each group are counted. For a candidate to receive any delegate from that precinct, they must have the support of participants required by the viability threshold, which is fifteen percent. When the voting is finally closed, the final head count is conducted, and based upon the number of votes, the precincts decides which delegates go to the county convention. This process continues for the district and state conventions until delegates are chosen to go to the Democratic National Convention. This process is far more complex for the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, because the Democrats cast secret ballots in their precincts and then count the votes.

Iowa plays a huge part in the Presidential elections because not only do they give a hint of who could possibly win the nomination at the conventions, but they also tend to narrow the playing field of the prospects. Iowans are proud in knowing that they are the first in the nation to start the process. They welcome the media circus and the constant visits by candidates who are campaigning. The media plays a huge part in voters’ decision. Given that it is the first of many votes, a lot of people are tuned in and ready to vote!

Part 2

Part III

Marco Rubio is the winner of the Iowa Caucus is because he won the election using the Copeland and the Borda Count methods. He was also the Condorcet Candidate defeating Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush in head-to-head matchups using the pairwise comparison. Despite the fact that Ted Cruz won the Instant Runoff Voting and Donald Trump won by plurality, Rubio displays higher support from the voters overall in the election. In the case of Donald Trump’s victory with Plurality, his support is only taking into account the first place votes whereas Rubio had the greatest majority of second place voters by a smashing 94%. In the case of Ted Cruz, the victor of the Instant Runoff Voting, despite Rubio’s high support as a second place candidate in the preference schedule, Rubio was instantly dismissed because he was only able to acquire six first place votes. Using the Instant Runoff Voting and the Plurality Method violates the fairness criterion more than the other two methods used which determine Rubio as the winner. Since both the Plurality and the Instant Runoff Voting methods only take into account first place voters on the preference schedule, they are not good voting methods and should be dismissed in the case of the Iowa Caucus.

Rubio is the clear candidate selected in the Iowa Caucus because the methods used in the elections he won take into account both the preference of the voters in regard to the other three candidates as well as the number of votes. Therefore, since both the Borda Count and the Copeland Method results in a victory for Rubio, where both show a higher favor for democracy, these methods should be given greater support as well as the candidate they indicate. Even though the Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem (IIA) states that no voting system meets every criterion in all cases, Rubio had the majority of victories within the election types used in the Iowa Caucus.

Let's think of the ideas or thoughts we want to convey as the water. It flows and often follows where it can be led or follows in directions it already knows. Next, let's think of the act of freezing like the act of writing those things down. We claim a position, sometimes rethinking it and forming it up in other ways, like the melting or thawing of water. If we think of this chemically, then the molecules move fast, if they move too fast they become air and float away, like unwritten ideas but when they freeze they slow down, sometimes barely moving on a point and that is writing them down. It is then we can see them interact with other molecules of thoughts or water (though in other states they can as well), some may even follow another's lead, slowing down to listen or move on with that idea, changing it to fit them. However, it's when many begin to listen or to think about it that it creates the sheets of ice that can move mountains. Sometimes those written sheets of ice move slowly to create the changes in our world. Sometimes in an instance, it finds just the right crack and breaks and crumbles the solid foundations that needed to move aside. No matter the change or speed the water, ice, or stone, makes, it is the constant transformation that writing should continue to solidify within and beyond us.